Severe weather events and associated flooding hazard

Key Finding

Since 2010, Queensland has been directly impacted by 8 severe tropical cyclones and more than 20 cyclones of other intensities. While state-wide trends must be treated with caution, in general, observations suggest there has been a rise in extreme severe weather events due to climate change and that tropical cyclones are travelling slower and southward, with increasing rainfall intensity giving rise to potentially extreme associated flooding.

Tropical cyclones (TC) and severe thunderstorms are long-standing features of Queensland’s climate.

Since 2010, Queensland has been directly impacted (those that have made landfall) by 8 severe tropical cyclones (STC), as well as more than 20 cyclones of other intensities.

Whereas the cyclone season officially runs from 1 November to 30 April, records since 1967 show a greater propensity for cyclones to impact Queensland from January through to April. Every TC is unique in its duration, size, intensity, movement and impact.

Severe thunderstorms can occur at any time of the year, although they are less common during Queensland’s ‘dry season’ (winter).

Extreme rainfall events, leading to potentially significant flooding events, are relatively common along Queensland’s north-eastern seaboard and in the Gulf, being areas which have greater exposure to rainfall associated with the northern Australian Monsoon, TCs and lows.

Although model projections show a future decrease in the number of TCs regionally, more intense cyclones (including those classified as STCs) are expected. Recent historical data analysis also suggests TCs are travelling slower and southward with increasing rainfall intensity giving rise to potentially extreme associated flooding.

It is assumed that occurrence rates of severe thunderstorms, and the intensity of heavy rainfall events, are likely to increase as a result of climate change as increases in mean temperature leads to an increase in surface warming thereby putting more moisture in to the air through evaporation.

More information:

Relevant Sustainable Development Goals’ targets

Number of designated cyclones per month since 1967
Month	November	December	January	February	March	April	May
Number of Events	2	17	43	33	34	16	1
Percentage of Total Events	1%	12%	29%	23%	23%	11%	1%

Figure 1: Queensland has experienced the effects of 146 cyclones since 1967. Note that these figures represent the date the cyclone was initially designated by the Bureau of Meteorology (not the total span of the event). Source: Bureau of Meteorology

Severe Storm Archive — Bureau of Meteorology
Date Range	Rain	Wind	Hail	Lightning	Tornado
1917 - 1966	25	208	146	12	19
1967 - 2000	109	200	342	5	45
2001 - 2006	213	378	216	6	22
2007 - 2010	556	187	117	1	10
2011 - 2016	367	167	220	2	11
Totals	1270	1140	1041	26	107

Figure 2: This table shows the number and type of severe weather events recorded in Queensland during the past 100 years. Source: Bureau of Meteorology

The Number and Type of Severe Weather Events since 1917

Figure 3: The above map shows the number and type of severe weather events in Queensland since 1917 as detailed in Figure 2.
Source: Data from Bureau of Meteorology, map created by Queensland Fire and Emergency Services.

Last updated: 16 September 2021