Climate is the long-term pattern of prevailing weather conditions (rainfall, temperature etc.) for a particular locality or region, while weather refers to the state of the atmosphere at or for a brief period of time. Seasonal variations such as the location and intensity of the summer monsoon and year-to-year fluctuations in the global climate system related to the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomenon strongly influence Queensland’s climate.

In Queensland, El Niño is often — though not always — associated with below average rainfall throughout winter, spring and summer. La Niña, the opposite of El Niño, is often linked to an increased risk of above average rainfall, floods and tropical cyclones.

Statistics describing historical climate variability help us to better understand Queensland’s climate, especially in regard to agricultural and water resources. For example, with an understanding of historical climate variability and its drivers, climate outlooks can be developed using statistical modelling for specific periods (i.e. the summer wet season). This helps decision-makers plan for future drought and flood events.

Queensland’s highly variable and changing climate is increasingly influencing the severe weather events we experience as they are occurring in a more energetic climate system. Whilst overall precipitation rates have fallen, long-term observations have shown that there has been a net increase in the number of heavy to extreme precipitation events since 1951. Such increases have and will continue to yield occurrences of associated major flooding events; the 2019 North Queensland monsoon trough event being the most notable. Whilst severe thunderstorms are a long-standing feature of Queensland's climate, a more energetic climate has resulted in an observed increase in the most damaging severe storm events.